Friday, March 14, 2008

Regulation-driven Bubble

So, in my research trying to figure out whether or not there is enough political will out there to force a purely regulation driven bubble, I came across this:



He said that GE's involvement in a cap-and-trade organization was motivated by "two basic beliefs" which are
1. We see an opportunity to make money for investors by developing green tech to address these issues
2. We are in the worst of all worlds right now. "We see that the government is moving in this way..." to add more regulations/mandates. So, like it or not more regulations are coming, we might as well profit from them.

So, basically GE thinks that a regulation-driven bubble in green tech is coming so they are embracing the trend and preparing to profit from the coming wave.

Here's a guy already surfing the wave:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120535230851631199.html

He's among the most successful investors trying to profit from rising environmental awareness, whether by speculating in energy commodities or launching wind-power companies. Last year, the total value of carbon permits changing hands -- whether on public exchanges or in private, off-market transactions, where most still occur -- nearly doubled to €40 billion, or about $60 billion, according to Oslo-based Point Carbon, a market research firm.
Yesterday, Climate Exchange's stock jumped 16% after the firm reported a tripling in 2007 revenue to £13.6 million, or about $27 million. That gives the company, which handles about 90% of the trading on carbon exchanges, a market capitalization of roughly $1.31 billion. Mr. Sandor's 20% stake is worth more than $260 million on paper.


Look, the government is creating jobs!

Citing "huge growth potential," the New York Mercantile Exchange plans to enter the field in this year's first quarter.

So, what is this "huge growth potential"? He has to believe that the global warming gospel has been effectively preached in America and is now ready to sell indulgences to the faithful, right? That's right, partner!

The U.S. hasn't ratified Kyoto. But all three leading Democratic and Republican presidential candidates say they want the U.S. to do more to fight climate change, and would likely set up a carbon-trading program.

There is definitely a quick buck to be made in this environment. The question is, has the gospel been accepted enough to a point where we are willing to make sacrifices (i.e. lower standards of living) for it? If so, invest in the coming green bubble! If not, it will go down as another fad.

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